By Richard Pepler, CEO of Henry Howard Cashflow Finance

A few months ago we were all preparing for interest rates to go up. Now we are being told they are likely to remain the same throughout 2016.

The bank rate could even be cut from its current low level of 0.5 per cent, where it has remained since March 2009.

While this may come as a blessed relief for SMEs which have borrowed money in order to grow and develop, if there is one thing businesses do not like, it is uncertainty and inconsistency.

It makes business planning and forecasting budgets very difficult if economic forecasts are constantly changing.

We have more data than ever before yet forecasting, it seems, remains poor at UK Plc.

Forecasters in the 1990s were almost incapable of predicting recessions. Available data and computing power has grown exponentially since then but forecasters are still just as cautious and often just as wrong. So, more data is not everything unless we know how to interrogate it properly.

The constantly changing predictions concerning interest rates will mean a lot of SMEs will remain nervous about borrowing on the assumption that despite the current thinking of rates staying low, this could suddenly change.

The ICAEW (Institute of Chartered Accountants for England and Wales) has reported that 65 per cent of SMEs have no measures in place to deal with a rise, even though half thought that their turnovers would be hit.

If the bank rate remains the same throughout 2016, this would mean an unprecedented eight years of static interest rates in the UK.

A whole generation of UK start-ups – 1.1 million new businesses have been created since 2008 - have no experience of working in a world of higher interest rates which can only exacerbate concerns about how well they would cope with such a change.

Despite healthy employment figures, the low interest rates have not sparked the kind of economic and real wage recovery that some hoped.

The recession left most businesses – and lenders – much more risk averse so despite the low interest rates, many have remained unwilling to borrow significantly to fund growth.

Even if interest rates remain low this cautionary attitude will remain in place, stifling business growth, until businesses feel more confident that money will remain cheap for a long enough period.

Throughout 2015 the Bank of England has been sending out very mixed messages. In July Mark Carney was quoted as saying the era of cheap money was coming to an end, then earlier this month he signalled the opposite.

The Bank of England needs to give some clear direction to the business community about the year ahead. Only then will they start to see the business investment and growth they’re hoping for.

Timeline: Interest rate forecasting in 2015

July 17, 2015: Bank of England governor Mark Carney says interest rates may rise at the end of the year

August 6, 2015: Bank of England votes to keep interest rates at 0.5 per cent

August 29, 2015: Mark Carney claims Chinese economic slowdown will not delay interest rate rises

September 18, 2015: Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane suggests interest rates may have to be cut further from their record low level due to downturn in global economy

September 22, 2015: George Osborne signals interest rate rises are on the horizon despite slowdown in global economy

September 28, 2015: The Centre for Economics and Business Research says a rise is unlikely before May or August 2015

October 16, 2015: Bank of England policymaker Kristin Forbes indicated she would vote to raise interest rates

November 5, 2015: Bank of England votes to keep the base rate at 0.5 per cent as they did the following month, December 2015.