LABOUR will win the greatest number of seats in May's Assembly election, but fall short of a majority, while UKIP could gain seven new AMs across Wales, an opinion poll has shown.

According to the poll by the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK Labour will lose three seats in May, leaving them with 27. Meanwhile UKIP, which currently does not have any AMs in the Senedd, is predicted to take seven regional seats.

The poll also predicts Plaid Cymru, which was pushed to the third party in the Senedd in the 2011 election, will overtake the Conservatives to again become the largest opposition party, gaining an additional two seats to win a total of 13. Meanwhile the Conservatives are set to drop from 14 seats to 11, with the Liberal Democrats to lose three of the five seats it currently holds.

But, although this means Labour will have the greatest number of seats, it places it four short of a majority, raising the possibility of a coalition.

Of the seven regional seats UKIP are predicted to win, one is in the South Wales East region.

If this is correct it will mean former Rochester and Strood MP Mark Reckless – who defected to UKIP from the Conservative Party in September 2014 and lost his seat in last year’s General Election – will become AM for South Wales East.

The other three regional seats are predicted to be won by Steffan Lewis and Delyth Jewell for Plaid Cymru and incumbent Mohammad Asghar for the Conservatives.

Conservative AM William Graham was not selected by the party to run again for the South Wales East regional seat he has held since the Assembly was formed in 1999, while Plaid AM Jocelyn Davies is standing down next month.

Presenting the poll in a blog post, Professor of political science at Cardiff University Roger Scully, who directed the study, said: “The evidence continues to suggest that UKIP is still firmly on course to win seats in May – indeed, to enter the Assembly in quite significant numbers.

“It would now be a major shock if they were to fail to do so.”

He also pointed out that Labour tend to do worse in reality than opinion polls suggest and suggested divisions between the national Conservative Party may have an impact on support for the party. The poll closed before former work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith resigned last week.

Another poll carried out at the same time also showed support for leaving the European Union in Wales had dropped by nine percentage points to 36 per cent, putting it behind the anti-Brexit campaign, which was up four points to 41 per cent. The remaining 24 per cent said they did not know or did not plan on voting, an increase of five per cent on February.

The referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU will be held on June 23.

The poll of 3,272 adults in Wales was carried out by YouGov over a 12-day period starting on Monday, March 7.