WELL that came out of nowhere.

There's always rumours before any big political speech that a resignation is on the cards.

And with questions being asked around Carwyn Jones' leadership ever since the death of Carl Sargeant in November there was a bit of a buzz at the Welsh Labour conference on Saturday morning that the first minister was about to quit.

But when Mr Jones took the stage in Llandudno after lunch on Saturday what we got was the fairly standard speech with some back-patting, a few barbs aimed at Theresa May's government and a bit of back-patting.

So far, so standard.

And then something changed.

If you've paid much attention to Carwyn Jones you'll notice he very rarely talks about his family. In the time I've been covering Welsh politics I can't remember more than half a dozen passing mentions to his children or wife.

Of course, he's well within his rights to want to keep his family out of the public eye - and if I was in his position I'd probably do the same thing.

So when he suddenly started telling us in some considerable detail about his wife and two children it was clear something big was coming.

The gasps in the hall showed just how out of the blue the announcement came to almost everyone.

We know he'd called Jeremy Corbyn on Saturday morning to warn him and his family will have known, but apart from that he seems to have kept the plan firmly under his hat - with even senior cabinet members saying they didn't know it was coming.

On the one hand there's a pleasing degree of transparency with the Welsh Government finding out exactly the same time as we did. On the other, springing this on the cabinet is maybe not the most efficient way of running a government.

So what now?

With at least five months to go until he even steps down, and eight until his replacement is elected, we're in for a long wait to see who the next first minister will be.

As it stands at this early stage, it's clear Mark Drakeford is the frontrunner in the race.

Well liked within Welsh Labour and admired by many on opposition benches, he's seen as a safe pair of hands.

His previous job as a special adviser to Rhodri Morgan himself will no doubt act in his favour here too.

So anyone standing against him is really going to have to pull out the big guns.

Health secretary Vaughan Gething has long been tipped as a future first minister, so it's likely he'll put his name forward, while housewives' favourite economy and transport secretary Ken Skates is also said to be a contender.

Welsh language and lifelong learning minister Eluned Morgan is also said to be considering a bid, while children and social care minister Huw Irranca-Davies and counsel general Jeremy Miles are also names I've heard linked with the role.

But there's a further twist in the tale.

Mr Drakeford has made it clear, if he wins, he isn't planning on an extended term in office, and will instead guide Labour through the next election and, assuming they get back into government, hand over the baton a couple of years in. So, with him likely to be in the top seat for no more than five years, it may be that some of those who would otherwise be interested in challenging him may step back and bide their time.

Although Mr Drakeford himself is in his 60s, all the other potential candidates I've named above are a decade or more younger than him, with even Mr Irranca-Davies, who is in his mid-50s, relatively baby-faced in political terms.

And, as Wales' favourite political commentator Roger Awan-Scully pointed out to me when I had a chat to him earlier this week, the autumn is a long time away, and all eyes are going to be on Mr Drakeford in the coming months.

He's going to have to be very, very careful about what he says and does.

Game on.