THE expected second wave of pandemic swine flu will be upon us within a couple of weeks, if the number of people in Wales contacting their GPs with flu-like symptoms continues to increase at current levels, a top doctor predicts.

But initial supplies of the newly-licensed H1N1 swine flu vaccine are set to arrive within the next few weeks, with vaccination programmes for at risk groups and frontline health and social care staff beginning as soon as possible afterwards.

The rate of GP consultations per 100,000 people in Wales - at 40.7 - is four times higher than at the beginning of September.

In Gwent, the rate is currently above that Wales average in three areas, Blaenau Gwent (42.8), Caerphilly (46.1), and Torfaen (47.8), though the rate of eight consultations per 100,000 in Monmouthshire is by some distance the lowest in Wales.

Chief Medical Officer for Wales Dr Tony Jewell, said similar increases in consultation rates are being seen across the UK.

"If this increase continues we will reach levels of activity more like normal winter time within the next couple of weeks, and we will be starting the expected second wave of the H1N1 pandemic flu," he said.

Consultation rates in Wales, as across the rest of the UK, are highest in those aged five-44 years. The only swine flu related death in Wales remains that of a 55-year-old woman from the Caerphilly area, in mid-August, though Dr Jewell said more can be expected.

People with flu like symptoms may check them through www.nhsdirect.wales.nhs.uk or by calling the Swine Flu Information Line on 0800 1 513513.