WITH Brexit becoming more complicated by the day - what is an indicative vote anyway? - I find myself asking the same question with every twist: how does this affect the Newport West by-election?

In the midst of the very people who bleated about “taking back control” getting upset when Parliament takes back control, and certain segments of politics and the press shrieking that Brexit is being “stolen”, it’s understandable, even if you don’t agree, that Brexiteers are very, very angry about the way it’s gone.

South Wales Argus:

And there’s a good chance this could galvanise pro-Brexit voters to get out and vote on April 4. Whether this will be enough to tip the result in favour of one of the anti-EU candidates remains to be seen.

MORE NEWS:

A third of Gwent crimes over two months were violent or sexual offences

Abergavenny killer Jack Shepherd tells Georgian court he wants to return to UK and fight conviction

Petition launched to save Greenmeadow Community Farm from cuts

At the start of the campaign I said the by-election must be a vote on local issues and not on Brexit - after all, the responsibilities of Newport West’s new MP will go far beyond leaving the EU.

I stick by this, but the fact is the first thing on the lips of candidates, campaigners and - crucially - the mythical man on the street is Brexit.

So, while the issues affecting Newport West are far wider, it may be Brexit which decides this campaign after all.

With the increasingly-baffling events of the past few weeks, it’s clear faith in politicians of all colours is at rock bottom. As I write this we’re still due to leave the EU on Friday - yes, this Friday - and the government seems utterly incapable of getting it sorted out in time.

This hardly speaks volumes about the effectiveness of our leaders.

So it wouldn’t be surprising to see turnout next week being very low, with the majority of voters in Newport West giving it a miss altogether - and so a few votes could make all the difference.

While there are the obvious frontrunners in the campaign, it would be foolish to dismiss any of the less-mainstream candidates.

Newport is nothing if not rebellious, and rejecting the mainstream parties in favour of an outsider would be in character, to say the very least.

Of course, all this is assuming the by-election goes ahead next week at all. Every other day it looks like the prime minister is about to call another general election - last Wednesday I was absolutely certain she was about to call another vote.

So there’s absolutely no guarantee voters in Newport West will be going to the polls on April 4, with the by-election cancelled as a UK-wide election gets under way.

And if it does go ahead as planned next Thursday, it’s possible whoever is elected to succeed Paul Flynn could find themselves fighting to defend the seat within weeks.

If the mess in Parliament continues - and that’s not really an “if” - there’s every chance the prime minister could call an election within days, or even hours, of voters in Newport West going to the polls.

And if voters have a swift change of heart it’s possible whoever wins on April 4 could see themselves going down as one of the shortest-serving MPs in history.

Hopefully they won’t beat Thomas Higgins, who was elected as MP for North Galway in 1906, despite having died just hours after polls closed. Whether or not they’ll beat the record of Henry Francis Compton, who was elected as MP for the New Forest in a by-election in December 1905, only to lose his seat in a General Election just 46 days later, remains to be seen.

There’s just over a week to go, but you know what they say about a week in politics.