THE newly-formed Brexit Party is on course to win two of Wales' four seats in the European Parliament in Thursday's election, a "truly unprecedented" opinion poll has suggested.

According to the YouGov poll, the Brexit Party, which is led by ex-Ukip leader Nigel Farage, has enjoyed a massive surge of support since April, while Labour, the Conservatives and Ukip have all seen big drops.

Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party have also seen increases in support, while backing for Change UK has dropped.

If the poll, carried out for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, is correct, the Brexit Party will win two seats in Thursday's European Parliament election, while Labour and Plaid Cymru will each win one. Previously Wales was represented by one MEP each from Labour, Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives at the Brexit Party. 

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On the poll results, Cardiff University's Professor Roger Awan-Scully said: "A great deal has changed in the political landscape in just a few weeks." 

He added: "If our new poll is great news for the Brexit Party, it is the very opposite for both Labour and, to an even greater extent, the Conservatives.

"Labour have long been our dominant party, but now face the realistic prospect not only of being defeated in Wales but even potentially finishing in third place.

"Meanwhile, according to our poll the Welsh Conservatives are very likely to lose their current seat in the European Parliament, and may actually be on course to finishing in sixth place in the election. These would be truly unprecedented results for both the traditionally dominant parties."

Professor Awan-Scully also pointed out that, in the 26 General Elections, eight European elections and five Assembly Elections since 1918, this would be only the second time Labour has not won the greatest number of votes in Wales - the other being the 2009 European election, when they were narrowly beaten by the Conservatives.

"Unless our poll is horribly inaccurate, or Labour stage an astonishing resurgence in the last few days of the European election campaign, we are going to see Labour defeated in Wales for only the second time in the last 100 years," he said.

"Mark Drakeford’s first electoral test as Welsh Labour leader will have been failed.

"We don’t yet know what political implications might follow from such an outcome, but this result in itself would be truly historic."

European Election candidates for Wales: 


Change UK - The Independent Group:
Jonathan Owen Jones
June Caris Davies
Matthew Graham Paul
Sally Anne Stephenson

Conservative:
Daniel Stephen Boucher
Craig James Robert Lawton
Fay Alicia Jones
Tomos Dafydd Davies
 

Green Party:
Anthony David Slaughter
Ian Roy Chandler
Ceri John Davies
Duncan Rees
 

Labour:
Jacqueline Margarete Jones
Matthew James Dorrance
Mary Felicity Wimbury
Mark Jeffrey Denley Whitcutt
 

Liberal Democrats:
Sam Bennett
Donna Louise Lalek
Alistair Ronald Cameron
Andrew John Parkhurst
 

Plaid Cymru:
Jill Evans
Carman Ria Smith
Patrick Robert Anthony McGuinness
Ioan Rhys Bellin


The Brexit Party:
Nathan Lee Gill
James Freeman Wells
Gethin James
Julie Anne Price

Ukip:
Kristian Philip Hicks
Keith Callum Edwards
Thomas George Harrison
Robert Michael McNeil-Wilson