THE Conservative Party would steal Newport West from Labour if a General Election was held today, a new poll has suggested.

The poll also suggested Labour would lose both Blaenau Gwent and Caerphilly to Plaid Cymru in an Assembly Election.

Labour has held Newport West in Parliament since 1987, when it was first won by Paul Flynn, who represented the seat until his death earlier this year. Ruth Jones retained the seat for Labour in a by-election in April.


Labour has held Caerphilly in the Senedd since the Assembly was founded in 1999. Hefin David currently represents the constituency.

The party has also held Blaenau Gwent since 2011, when Alun Davies was first elected to the seat.

Across Wales as a whole, the poll carried out by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University showed support for the Conservative Party was up five per cent since July to 29 per cent, while 25 per cent backed Labour, up three per cent.

If the poll is correct, of the 40 Welsh seats in Parliament, Labour would win 18, the Conservatives 17, Plaid Cymru four and the Liberal Democrats one. This would be the first time since World War Two Labour would not win a clear majority in Wales.

Roger Awan-Scully, professor of political science at the Wales Governance Centre, said: “Conservative improvement appears to have come at the direct expense of the Brexit Party - although the latter still clearly have significant support, they now lag well behind the Conservatives among 2016 Leave voters.

“Despite a modest recovery since our last poll, Welsh Labour look to be on the defensive. Both for Westminster and the Assembly they currently seem on course to lose significant ground.

“What the poll shows above all, though, are the stark divisions in Wales – as across most of Britain – on the issue of Brexit.

“Among 2016 Remain voters, the Conservatives are in a distant fourth place, while the Brexit Party wins literally zero percent support.

“Among 2016 Leavers, the Conservatives win nearly half of all support (49 per cent) and the Brexit Party the bulk of the remainder (another 29 per cent).

“In these unprecedented political times, and with public support spread across several parties, all attempts to use opinion poll numbers to project outcome in term of parliamentary seats should be viewed with very considerable caution.”

The next General Election is not due until 2022, although speculation has been mounting that Boris Johnson will call a snap poll in an attempt to break the deadlock on Brexit. The next Assembly Election will be held in 2021.