CAERPHILLY is the area of Wales most likely to become a coronavirus 'hotspot', a study has predicted.

A newly developed 'coronavirus calculator' predicts that Caerphilly is one of the areas in Britain most at risk of becoming a hotspot.

Devised by Imperial College London, the website predicts which parts of England and Wales have the greatest probability of seeing cases rise above 50 per 100,000, which it classes as a 'hotspot.'

Other than Bolton and Glasgow, the calculator places Caerphilly most at risk, with an 87 per cent chance of becoming a hotspot this week.

In the last week, the rate in Caerphilly is 43.1 per 100,000.

The risk of becoming a coronavirus hotspot rises to 97 per cent next week.

South Wales Argus:

The calculator has a more positive outlook on the state of Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen and Monmouthshire.

It gives Torfaen a two per cent chance of becoming a hotspot.

Both Newport and Blaenau Gwent have a one per cent risk.

There is no risk of Monmouthshire becoming a coronavirus hotspot in the next two weeks according to the calculator.

It does predict that cases in Newport are "likely increasing" though.

South Wales Argus:

Lead researcher Professor Axel Gandy, from the Department of Mathematics at Imperial, said: "COVID-19 is, unfortunately, very much still with us, but we hope this will be a useful tool for local and national governments trying to bring hotspots under control.

"The model allows us to project where local hotspots of COVID-19 are likely to develop in England and Wales based on the trends that we’re seeing in those areas."

The website was produced by the Department of Mathemtics, in collaboration with the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (GIDA), and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) at Imperial.


It uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to reported a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.

The site also provides estimates for each local authority in England and Wales on whether cases are likely to be increasing or decreasing in the following week and the probability of R(t) being greater than 1 in the following week.

The predictions do assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

Dr Swapnil Mishra, from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, said: “We provide weekly predictions of the evolution of COVID-19 at the local authority level in England and Wales. Our model helps to identify hotspots – probable local areas of concern.

"We hope that our estimates will enable swift action at the local level to control the spread of the epidemic.”