THE majority of people in Wales support the firebreak lockdown in Wales, according to a new poll.

The two week circuit break lockdown is supported by 60 per cent of people in Wales.

It will end on November 9, and 60 per cent of people in Wales think it was the correct decision, according to a YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University.

Just over a quarter of people (26 per cent) opposed the restrictions, while 11 per cent said they had no strong feelings, and three per cent said they didn't know.

The poll also looked at voting intentions for future elections.

Labour have increased support at a Westminster and Senedd level, though gains have also been made by the anti-devolution parties.

When it comes to support in a general election, Labour have seen a two per cent rise in support, leaving them with 43 per cent across Wales.

This, in partnership with a small one per cent drop in support for the Conservatives, would see Labour regain five seats from the Tories, the poll suggests.

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Polling expert Prof Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University said: "Labour will, though, undoubtedly be pleased to register their highest Westminster vote intention in Wales since December 2018.

"Such findings are broadly in line with what recent Britain-wide polling has been showing, with a modest Conservative weakening and slight improvements for Labour in recent weeks bringing the two parties more-or-less level.

"The projected Labour gains from the Conservatives are (in order of marginality from the 2019 general election) Delyn, Bridgend, Clwyd South, Vale of Clwyd and Ynys Mon; of the swathe of Welsh Conservative gains in the December 2019 general election, only Wrexham is now (very narrowly) projected to remain blue."

Labour has also seen a rise of four per cent in support in devolved voting intentions, up to 38 per cent, while the Conservatives (two per cent drop) and Plaid Cymru (four per cent drop) have seen support fall.

In the regional lists though, there is a rise in support for anti-devolution party Abolish the Welsh Assembly, up three per cent to seven per cent overall.

If the poll is correct, while none of the constituency seats in Gwent would change hands, the Conservatives would gain an additional regional seat in South Wales East.

Currently the region is represented by one Conservative MS, one Brexit Party member, one for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party and one Plaid Cymru MS.

The additional Conservative seat would come at the expense of the Brexit Party, the poll suggests.

If that support was translated into votes, this what the next Senedd could look like:

  • Labour: 28 seats (26 constituency, two regional)
  • Conservatives: 16 seats (seven constituency, nine regional)
  • Plaid Cymru: 11 seats (six constituency, five regional)
  • Abolish the Assembly: Four seats (four regional)
  • Liberal Democrats: One seat (one constituency)

This would leave Labour three seats short of a controlling majority, opening up the possibility that a coalition could take power.

Support for Welsh independence remains stable, with just under a quarter of voters (23 per cent) saying they would want Wales to become an independent country.

Just over half of voters - 53 per cent - said they were against independence.

Professor Awan-Scully said: "Overall, our new poll certainly does not suggest that Labour in Wales are suffering negative political consequences from the firebreak lockdown.

"If anything the opposite would appear to be the case, with the party’s support appearing to strengthen more substantially for the Senedd constituency vote than for Westminster.

"In addition to factors common to politics across Britain – such as declining ratings for Prime Minister Johnson, dissatisfaction with the UK government’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis, and the impact of Sir Keir Starmer on perceptions of Labour – the persistence of a major crisis in an area of devolved competence like health has brought devolved politics to the fore.

"At present, this appears to be playing to Labour’s advantage in Wales.

"But it may also be helping an explicitly anti-devolution party like Abolish the Assembly harvest additional support from some of those who resent the distinct approach to handling the crisis taken by government in Wales."