Reform are projected to take half of all Senedd seats in Gwent this week – including three of the region’s newly drawn constituencies – according to a major new poll. The figures point to a dramatic realignment in an area where Labour has traditionally been dominant and Plaid Cymru has also built pockets of strength.
Out of the 18 seats available across Gwent, the More in Common MRP model forecasts Reform winning nine, with Plaid Cymru on four, Labour on three, and one seat each for the Green Party and the Welsh Conservatives. If borne out on Thursday, the results would underline how quickly the political map in south‑east Wales is shifting, with Reform breaking through in areas long seen as safe for Labour.
The projections point to Reform topping the poll in three of the new “super seats” that now cover much of Newport, Islwyn, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Rhymney and Torfaen. In Casnewydd Islwyn – bringing together parts of Newport and Islwyn – Reform are forecast to come first with 37% of the vote. Labour is projected to lag some way behind, with Plaid Cymru also in contention, while the Greens and Conservatives are set to take smaller but still significant shares.
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In Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni – spanning Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly and Rhymney – Reform are again forecast to top the poll, with around 35% of the vote. Labour is projected to trail behind Plaid here, raising the prospect of the party being pushed into third place in one of its historic heartlands. Plaid Cymru, which has long targeted this part of the Valleys, is predicted to run Reform closer than Labour, signalling how the contest on the centre‑left is changing.
The pattern is repeated, though more narrowly, in Sir Fynwy Torfaen, where Reform are again predicted to come out on top with 29%. Here, the Conservatives are forecast to perform more strongly than in many other Gwent seats, with Plaid Cymru and Labour close behind in what looks like a tight four‑way race. Small late shifts in support could still prove decisive in deciding who takes the seat on Thursday night.
Nationally, the More in Common poll suggests Plaid Cymru and Reform are neck‑and‑neck heading into the Senedd election on May 7. The MRP model forecasts both parties to win 34 seats each, well short of the 49 needed for an outright majority, with Labour on 14 seats, the Conservatives on nine and the Greens on five, while the Welsh Liberal Democrats are not expected to win any seats.
That leaves Wales on course for a hung Senedd and post‑election talks over a coalition or confidence‑and‑supply deal, in what pollsters describe as a “knife‑edge” race for control of the next Welsh Government.
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