AS Swine flu dominates the world headlines, Faye Dickson finds out what the effect could be in Gwent.

MORE THAN 180,000 people in Gwent are expected to suffer from swine flu in the next 18 months and the sickness toll is rising by the day.

While many sufferers have reported not much more than a cold, the outbreak could threaten the running of businesses and transport networks as staffing levels fall and has caused people to panic about the potential spread.

Last week a number of Gwent schools sent letters home to parents informing them pupils or staff had contracted the illness and warning them to look out for signs of the disease in their children.

On Friday we reported how Newport mother Lisa Jarvis, 32, felt parents were panicking about the potential spread of swine flu after her daughter Caitlin, nine, was diagnosed with the disease.

She said some parents were taking their healthy children out of school despite being advised this was not necessary unless they were showing symptoms.

Mrs Jarvis, from Barrack Hill, said: "The media publish all the deaths and people panic because they don’t take into account the thousands of people who already die from having seasonal flu every year."

Caitlin did not attend Crindau Primary last week because she was diagnosed with suspected swine flu by an NHS Direct doctor on July 12 and her sisters Jade, 11, and Lauren, 10, stayed with their grandmother so they did not catch it.

Mrs Jarvis was angry at the way other pupils at the school allegedly acted towards Jade and Lauren, who had not had any contact with their sister since the diagnosis.

She said some of the children were avoiding them and covering their mouths when they went near them.

"It’s as though the parents have gone into panic," she said.

But Pontypool GP Greg Graham said the majority of people have reacted responsibly to the outbreak, with a third of the Welsh population expected to suffer from swine flu in the next 18 months.

"At the moment the public are behaving pretty responsibly about this," he said.

"They phone us up or ringing NHS Direct rather than coming into the surgery, which is helping to prevent the disease spreading.

"For most people this is not much more than a bad dose of flu."

Dr Graham said elderly people were less likely to be affected by the outbreak than youngsters because they tend not to mix in large groups and have been exposed to more variations of flu during their lifetimes.

He also predicted the illness toll would rise in August as holidaymakers travel abroad and the disease spreads through aeroplane air conditioning systems.

The outbreak could tip the UK into deflation and see gross domestic product fall by five percent as panicked consumers stay at home to avoid infection, a report by economic forecaster Oxford Economics revealed last week.

It is predicted businesses will struggle to maintain productivity as workers fall ill and take time off work and the transport network is also expected to be hit by staff shortages, preventing some people from getting to work.

The report warned swine flu could postpone the UK’s recovery from the economic downturn as it has hit at a time when banks and businesses are still feeling the effects of the financial crisis.

An Assembly spokesman said: "We would recommend that companies of all sizes start making contingency plans to ensure they are fully prepared to deal with any potential impact of swine flu on their day-to-day business activities."

More information on how businesses can cope with the outbreak can be found at www.business-support-wales.gov.uk.

Newport council officers were told last week they would be redeployed to critical services such as residential care homes, child protection checks, highways emergencies and public protection issues if staffing levels were hit by a flu epidemic.