WE are only a game or two into the new rugby season, and already I'm predicting a Welsh winner of the Celtic League competition.

No, it's not Llanelli Scarlets who won the title last season, and no it's not Newport Gwent Dragons the second best Welsh team last year and fancied to do well this time.

I'm not going for Cardiff Blues either, despite their victory over the Dragons. It's Neath-Swansea Ospreys for the title instead - though they had to battle to avoid being bottom Welsh team last season and heading for a place in the Parker Pen competition.

There are other Celtic nations involved, of course, so it would be wrong and narrow to confine the front runners to the Welsh sides.

But with the Irish Rugby Union still blocking their leading players from appearing in a number of matches I can't see them making a real challenge.

Ulster gave it a real go last season and finished runners-up, but they don't look the same force this time.

They've lost coach Alan Solomons to Northampton, David Humphreys' appearances will be restricted and they have already surrendered their 21-game unbeaten record at Ravenhill to a below strength Leinster team.

The Scottish outfits are hardly strong enough to challenge for Celtic League honours. Edinburgh, probably the best, have already lost at home to Ulster while Glasgow and Borders don't possess the strength in depth to mount a serious challenge.

So that leaves Wales whose leading team the Scarlets appear to be on the wane after years at or near the top of the tree, a front runner in Europe but now looking more than a bit fragile.

The Dragons ought to be the favourites for they finished third last season and enjoyed an unbeaten home record in the league.

Since then they have strengthened their squad with the signing of high quality backs like Gareth Cooper, Ceri Sweeney and Gareth Wyatt.

So on that basis they ought to be a more formidable line-up, and they could yet challenge, especially with the inspirational Percy Montgomery back.

But the signs have not been good for a while. It may be harsh to judge a team after one game, but the warning signals have been there, and unless Chris Anderson does something about the set pieces the Dragons won't progress.

It's not the coach who drops passes or turns the ball over, of course, but certain basic principles have to be adhered to. And taking notice of assistants who have been there before might not be a bad idea.

The Wales management are helping the cause, too, by adopting a more flexible approach. Instead of preventing their players from appearing in Celtic League games, like the Irish, they are being more realistic by relying on a voluntary approach.

Consequently, the regions are being more co-operative, Wales and Ospreys props Adam and Duncan Jones replacements in the first two games, for example, instead of starting.

Talking of the Ospreys, they do appear to be the part, a useful team strengthened by the signing of Sonny Parker, Brent Cockbain and Ryan Jones, by the arrival of New Zealander Jason Spice at scrum half and by the promise of flanker Richie Pugh and the versatile Gavin Henson.

If this motivates the Dragons fine.

But a few things have got to change if they are to be the force they should be.