James Rowberry: Newport County are still on the right track

The Exiles head into today’s game on a four-game losing streak and are nervously looking over their shoulders after taking just seven points from nine games.

County’s home form gives even more cause for concern – they finished last season with five losses on the spin and have lost four of five in the league in the current campaign, with a solitary success against Tranmere.

That leads to the 49th game of Rowberry’s burgeoning managerial career, which started in mid-October, probably being his biggest.

His predecessor turned County into being promotion contenders and the current boss had the Amber Army dreaming of going up to League One automatically, let alone play-offs, last March until the dramatic collapse.

Now the club sits 19th and in peril of a scrap to avoid going back down to the National League.

Rowberry’s insistence that County are on the right track is backed up by a table using the statistical tool of expected goals.

According to footballxg.com, the Exiles' performances should have yielded 16 points to put them sixth in the table.

Their stats rank fourth-placed Stevenage top then Salford (sixth), Mansfield (seventh), Leyton Orient (top) and Sutton (10th) ahead of County.

Rowberry has frequently bemoaned individual errors yet he also knows that football isn’t about what you deserve.

DESPAIR: Grimsby struck first against County and won 2-0 (Image: Huw Evans Agency)

“It's not just about stats because ultimately the table doesn't lie with where we are at,” he said. “We should be better than where we are through what we have done.

“If you look at expected goals for and against we should be nine points better off.

“That shows that if we get these little bits of detail right, which I know we can, then we can move forward. We've just got to keep believing in it.”

But what is causing a County side that is doing well on the stats sheet to be struggling on the results ledger?

“We don't particularly get many high-quality shots on our goal and we have to defend key moments better as a collective,” said Rowberry.

“There are usually three or four things that add to a goal and at the minute it is sometimes just one or two [for us]. That's something we have to get better at and that comes through concentration.

“It also helps when you take the lead in games and if we have that fast start and tempo then we can build on that to win games.”

County have hit the front just once in 13 games this season – in the 4-0 win at Harrogate – and their successes against Luton, Tranmere, Portsmouth and Exeter came thanks to comebacks.

According to fotmob.com, the Exiles are 19th out of 24 in League Two for shots on target per match, last for big chances created, 21st for big chances missed and 21st for accurate crosses per match.

“We are creating chances and the lads are sticking with what we are trying to achieve,” insisted the manager.

“We've got to maintain our principles and follow the same processes that we did for the four wins on the spin and the four games where we have not done so well.

“You can talk about stats but the most important thing is creating high-quality chances by supplying balls into the box, penetrating the back line or if we can't get in behind then trying to build.”

County will need to show character against Carlisle but that doesn’t just mean doing the dirty work.

“It's almost as important to be brave on the ball as it is going in for a tackle and setting the tone for the game,” said Rowberry. “We have a really strong group of players and now it's about getting results.”