THAT Newport County AFC are in the mix for the League Two play-offs is something of a miracle, and the Exiles face eight days that will shape their run-in.
Before a ball was kicked, Graham Coughlan’s men were tipped to be in a scrap for Football League survival rather than being outsiders for the top seven.
Despite key summer departures, financial uncertainty that led to the hunt for investment, a small budget and then a crippling autumn injury list, the Exiles are in a healthy position as they approach the run-in.
There are no relegation fears; they could implode and still be safe.
They go into this weekend with a 22-point lead over one-from-bottom Forest Green, who have 33 left to play for, with bottom Sutton a point further back.
County will be in the EFL 92 next season and they are a point away from hitting Coughlan’s first target of 50, with the next marker then 58 to beat last season’s tally.
However, they are also in the mix for the play-offs in the tightly-packed table with clubs all the way down to Bradford in 15th having hopes of the top seven.
The Exiles are 16/1 outsiders with Football League sponsors Sky Bet and Coughlan’s squad face eight days that will put their credentials to the test.
This weekend they travel to second-placed Stockport, on Tuesday they host eighth-placed Morecambe and then it’s a trip to 10th-placed AFC Wimbledon.
If County are to remain in the play-off conversation then they need at least two strong results given that they are currently five points – two games – back on Walsall and Morecambe.
There will be twists and turns throughout March but if the Exiles have a positive eight days (six, seven or nine points) then they will be right in the mix.
Anything less and they will have too much to do.
The state of play: the Exiles have 49 points with 11 fixtures to go and 33 points to play for.
Not once since County have been back in the Football League has a team qualified for the play-offs without hitting the 70-point mark.
The team finishing seventh in the nine completed campaigns (points per game settled placings in 2019/20 because of Covid) has averaged 73 points, going from Blackpool’s 70 in 2017 to Mansfield’s 77 in 2022.
County made the play-offs in 2019 and 2021 by totting up 71 and 73 points respectively.
The current crop will realistically need at least seven wins from their remaining fixtures, with tricky trips to promotion-chasing Barrow and relegation-threatened Colchester after this tough eight-day block.
If County fall out of contention then does January signing Luke Jephcott get a look-in with a view to next season? Is academy graduate Harrison Bright given a shot rather than Southampton’s Lewis Payne? Does Kiban Rai come back into the mix?
All questions for down the line, for now County will look to keep things interesting in a key eight days after a season in which they have surpassed expectations.
PAST TOTALS FOR SEVENTH
- 2022/23: 75 (Salford)
- 2021/22: 77 (Mansfield)
- 2020/21: 73 (Tranmere)
- 2019/20: Covid led to points per game
- 2018/19: 71 (County)
- 2017/18: 75 (Lincoln)
- 2016/17: 70 (Blackpool)
- 2015/16: 75 (AFC Wimbledon)
- 2014/15: 71 (Plymouth)
- 2013/14: 71 (York)
LEAGUE TWO FIXTURES
Accrington v Bradford, Barrow v Colchester, Doncaster v Crewe, Forest Green v Walsall, Gillingham v Tranmere, Harrogate v Crawley, Mansfield v Swindon, MK Dons v Salford, Morecambe v Wrexham, Notts County v AFC Wimbledon, Stockport v Newport County, Sutton v Grimsby.
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