AS PREDICTED, the impact of the death of Carl Sargeant is going to be felt in Cardiff Bay for a very long time to come.

Not only is the Assembly noticeably quieter without his larger-than-life presence, but his shocking death has raised multiple questions about how the Welsh Government is run.

In the days following his death former minister Leighton Andrews made a number of accusations around bullying and intimidation within Carwyn Jones’ cabinet, with others soon coming forward with similar claims.

And the first minister muddied the waters last week when he said any concerns raised with him three years ago, when the alleged behaviour was going on, had been “dealt with”, directly contradicting a statement he made in 2014, when he said no accusations had been made.

Yesterday it was announced a motion calling for Mr Jones to face an inquiry into claims of bullying in the Welsh Government will be put to a vote in the Assembly.

If it gets the go-ahead, which seems more likely than not, this will pile yet more pressure on the first minister, already under serious strain following Mr Sargeant’s death.

And there’s another impact to consider.

With the loss of Mr Sargeant Labour is down to 28 AMs in the Assembly – three short of the controlling majority of 31. Although Liberal Democrat Kirsty Williams and Independent Dafydd Elis-Thomas have also been brought into the cabinet, taking it to 30, this still leaves Carwyn Jones one vote short.

Will this have an impact on how business is done in the immediate future? Will it lead to more concessions to the opposition parties?

A by-election will be held in Alyn and Deeside – only the fourth in the Assembly’s history – to pick Mr Sargeant’s successor, which surely Labour has in the bag.

But these things take time to put in motion, and in the meantime the balance of the Assembly will be in upheaval.

He may be gone, but Carl Sargeant’s presence is very much being felt in Cardiff Bay.

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Today is one of the biggest days in the political calendar, with chancellor Philip Hammond due to unveil his budget this afternoon.

Among the announcements we already know about is a new railcard for 16 to 30-year-olds – because those of us in our 30s and older are more than happy to pay extortionate prices for rail tickets, apparently.

But what about Wales?

Although it’s possible the chancellor will announce the £1.3 billion tidal lagoon in Swansea is being given the go-ahead, word in the corridors of power is that this isn’t going to happen.

This is a bit of a shame as the project has been in the pipeline for years now, and giving it the green light would be just the boost Wales’ economy needs, not to mention a much-needed step in the direction of more renewable energy.

Similar lagoons are also planned off the coast of Newport, Cardiff and elsewhere if the Swansea scheme is a success, so giving it the go-ahead would have a positive knock-on effect across the country.

Today’s budget will be interesting from a political point of view, given that it’s the first since the Conservatives lost their Parliamentary majority in June.

As a result it’ll probably include a few concessions to the government’s new DUP pals.

It would be nice to think there might be a few little surprises for Wales, but I wouldn’t hold your breath.