IN THEORY we’re a good three years plus away from the next election.

Assuming everything runs to plan the next time voters in Wales will go to polls will be in May 2021, when the next round of Welsh Assembly Elections will be held.

Of course, although we only had a General Election six short months ago, Theresa May’s minority administration holding firm for a full five years looks fairly unlikely, so realistically we’re probably going to heading back into the polling booths sooner than that.

But let’s assume for a minute that everything does go to plan and there’s another almost-three and a half years of plain sailing. This means our two governments will have to actually get down to the day to day work of making legislation.

Or they would, were two big obstacles not in the way.

One, surprising no one, is Brexit. We’ve got another 15 months of preparation until the bouncers at Brussels stop letting us in, and that’s sure to be far from the end of it.

The other, in Wales anyway, is the question of party leadership.

Carwyn Jones has been the leader of Welsh Labour and first minister since December 2009. If he’s still in the role next year that’ll make ten years – a long time in any job, let alone in the often-cutthroat world of politics.

The last prime minister to last more than 10 years was Tony Blair, and I defy you to find anyone who doesn't think he clung on a bit longer than he probably should have done. Likewise Margaret Thatcher managed 15 years, but by the end she basically had to be dragged from Downing Street against her will.

People in the know have suggested Mr Jones is likely to step aside before the 2021 election, probably around 2020, giving his successor a year or so to bed in before facing the vote.

And last week Mark Drakeford, one of the most senior ministers in the Welsh Government, may have fired the starting pistol on a leadership contest by saying he would “think” about standing to lead the party if the opportunity arose.

Very popular in Cardiff Bay and seen as a safe pair of hands, the finance minister and former right-hand-man of Rhodri Morgan would almost certainly be the frontrunner in any leadership contest.

Housewives’ choice Ken Skates will most likely throw his hat in the ring as well, while health secretary Vaughan Gething would also be expected to launch a bid.

Meanwhile whispers around Andrew RT Davies’ leadership of the Welsh Conservatives have also been circulating for some time.

He’s been in the top role since 2011, but 2016’s Assembly Election wasn’t too kind to the party, seeing it lose three seats and fall behind Plaid as the third-largest group in the Senedd.

Although a spate of resignations and defections has taken it back up to second, it still has less than half as many seats as Labour, hardly a position of great strength.

Who would be prepared to stand against him I don't know, but with every day it seems more and more likely he'll have to fight for his job - or gracefully step aside - before too long.

And Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood, who has been in the role since 2012, recently said she would "welcome" a leadership challenge. Under the party's rules the leader can be challenged once every two years, with the next opportunity coming up in October.

So maybe we're in for a big change in the faces at the top in the Senedd before too long.

Really this time in an election cycle is the right time to do this - parties aren't having to focus on winning elections, so maybe now is the time to be looking inwards.

But really, wouldn't you rather they actually focused on running the country?