STATE OF THE PARTIES: A look at Welsh Labour

CARWYN Jones’ surprise announcement that he is planning on quitting as first minister in the autumn threw Welsh Labour for a loop.

The fact that he had apparently told very few people about his plan - with even senior members of his cabinet saying they didn’t know he was planning on stepping down until he made the announcement on Saturday - left the party reeling.

So what now for Welsh Labour?

The party has been enjoying good fortune of late, losing just one seat in the 2016 Assembly Election, and ousting three Conservative MPs in last year’s snap General Election.

In his speech - before he announced he was planning on quitting as first minister - Carwyn Jones described Welsh Labour as “a political party in rude health”.

But the death of Carl Sargeant in November has cast a pall over the party - with a QC-led inquiry into the circumstances surrounding the death of the former minister underway.

Political commentator Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University said Welsh Labour are in the somewhat enviable position of lacking strong opposition.

“In Wales they are utterly dominant in that they’re not facing any strong opposition at all.

“Ukip in the Assembly have virtually collapsed and neither the Conservatives nor Plaid Cymru are in good shape.

“Nationally all the important political matters are internal Labour Party matters.”

But he added the party does face some longer-term problems.

“There are longer term problems with the party in that lots of MPs do not believe in the Corbynista agenda,” he said. “That’s problematic.

“And Labour are going to be in power when Brexit hits and that is going to have negative impacts in Wales and hit public services.”

And there could be more trouble ahead, with the election of Swansea East MP Carolyn Harris as the party's first-ever deputy leader at the weekend causing controversy after it was revealed opponent, Cardiff North AM Julie Morgan, had in fact received a greater share of the vote from members - but lost overall due to the use of the electoral college system.

Through this system one third of votes is allocated to MPs, AMs and MEPs, another third to trade unions and affiliated bodies and the final third to members. This was the same system used to elect Donald Trump as US president - despite receiving fewer votes than Hillary Clinton.

Mrs Morgan and others have called for the introduction of a one-member-one-vote system, which was used to elect Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the national party, and the election's result has only intensified these calls.

It is likely this is an argument which will continue for some time, but whether it is settled in time for the election for Carwyn Jones' successor remains to be seen.

Speaking to the Argus following his speech at last weekend's conference, Jeremy Corbyn said the party was emboldened by last June's election results, and was prepared to fight another election whenever it comes.

"We are waiting for Theresa May to take another walking holiday around Dolgellau, because apparently that is the place which inspired her to call elections," he said.

He added: "We are selecting candidates for the marginal constituencies, in fact we've almost finished that process now.

"Those candidates have to get stuck in and campaign. We don’t know when a General Election will come - no one predicted a General Election a year ago - so, as a party, we are absolutely ready for that."

And, on the electoral method issue, he said: "It is up to the Welsh Labour Party to consider that process."

Newport West MP Paul Flynn is one of Welsh Labour’s elder statesmen, having first been elected to Parliament in 1987. He said the party had experienced “a terrible year” following the death of Carl Sargeant.

But, saying “we have to stand together”, he added the result of last year’s General Election gave supporters reason to be cheerful.

“People in Wales are in very good heart,” he said.

“We were miserable before the election.

“We were expecting a poor result, and we were all pleasantly surprised.

“We won back three seats, which is a real boost for the party.”

He added: “There is deep-seated loyalty and trust in the Labour Party in Wales.

“A lot of the credit for the reputation of Labour in Wales is down to Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones.”

And Newport East AM John Griffiths - who was among the first group of AMs elected to the Assembly in 1999 - described the mood within the party as "very upbeat".

"What people really want is a UK General Election as quickly as possible," he said. "We performed better than expected in the last election, Jeremy Corbyn ran a great campaign, and the social media effort, involving young people, was all very positive.

"People are impatient, I think, for a General Election election so the British people have another opportunity, with Brexit and all the other things, to decide what sort of the future they want.

"We also think we are in very good shape for the next Welsh Assembly election."

He added: "What we need is to get on with the election for Carwyn's successor and make sure that’s done in as timely a way as possible.

"Whoever becomes the leader still has the manifesto to implement, so the policies are set in some way, but there will be some new energy, some new ideas, some new priorities, and all of that can be set out by the candidates in their campaigns."

Mr Griffiths also said he believed faith in the Labour Party had grown as devolution had become more entrenched.

"Labour has become more pro-devolution in Wales, which has been very progressive and encouraging for people like me who have always been very keen on developing the Assembly and bringing more power into Wales.

"That’s been quite significant in Wales. Before we had the Assembly and during the early stages of the Assembly there was quite a lot of scepticism in the Lab Party in Wales, and in Wales generally, of the value of devolution.

"I think we've come so far since then in terms of the increased powers and responsibilities of the Assembly. That's been quite a significant change, but it's come with the support of the wider Labour Party in Wales and the people of Wales."

The party’s new deputy leader Carolyn Harris, who was elected to the role just hours before Mr Jones announced he was quitting, said she believed the mood in the party is “buoyant”.

“We are preparing for the first 100 days of a Labour government in Westminster,” she said.

“That’s something I am working towards and I hope to God that it comes soon.”

And on the prospect of another snap General Election, the Swansea East MP said: “Bring it on, I say.

“We are ready. The Labour Party is always ready.

“If she (Theresa May) calls a General Election today I’ll be out knocking doors tomorrow to make sure we get as many Welsh Labour MPs returned to Westminster as possible.

“We’ve got 28 but we could win quite a few of the Tory seats, I am convinced of it.”

With little sign of Labour losing its hold on power in Wales, and with the prospect of a new first minister and party leader on the horizon, Mr Awan-Scully said the party faced the challenge of finding a way to “renew itself”.

“That is always a difficult thing for a party to do,” he said.

“It’s a common feature of one party dominated systems where there can be a stagnation because there’s no pressure to think of new ideas. If anything new ideas can be frowned upon.

“Why rock the boat when it’s working already?”

With campaigning for the new first minister to get underway soon, and the possibility of a special conference in the summer to settle the electoral college/one-member-one-vote row on the horizon, interesting times are ahead for Welsh Labour.