Canberra in October can't possibly be a replica of Rome in February or it will be the blackest day in Welsh rugby history tomorrow.

There have been a few dark days in the past decade. Defeat by Western Samoa, record hidings at the hands of Australia, New Zealand, England, France, Ireland - you name it and Wales have suffered it since the rot really set in around the time of the 1991 World Cup with that Samoan debacle.

Now there is another defining moment in Welsh rugby history and it comes in the shape of an absolutely crucial World Cup qualifier against Italy at Canberra Stadium tomorrow, a match to decide which team will go through to the quarter-finals from Pool D along with New Zealand.

It is basically winner-takes-all, though in the unlikely event of a draw Wales will make it because of the bonus point they secured against Canada.

And it has to be said that the signs definitely favour Wales after events of the past few days, even though it didn't look likely to be that way at the start of the week.

Then it appeared to be Italy who held all the aces, full of the kind of confidence Wales lacked after their stuttering performance against Tonga.

But then came the Canada game on Tuesday night which Italy duly won to set up the showdown against Wales, but at some cost.

They have lost both wing Mirco Bergamasco and lock Marco Bortolami and there are doubts about three more players but influential captain and scrum half Alessandro Troncon is fit. The Italians are also labouring under an unfair system which has meant them playing Tuesday and tomorrow with insufficient time to prepare properly, even if they had a fully fit squad, whereas Wales will have had six days between matches with nothing to distract them.

So for Wales coach Steve Hansen to claim yesterday that Italy go in as the favourites is at best baffling, at worst ridiculous.

Having said that, there is no doubt that the mind games are going on. Italy coach John Kirwan is so laid back in an injury crisis that he is almost horizontal whereas New Zealand compatriot Hansen, without any of those problems, appears as tight as a coiled spring.

Kirwan is without two leading players, for sure, but there is little doubt that he is milking the situation to the full.

All the psychological warfare adds to the tension that is building up on Hansen and his players, though the coach has at least responded by being bold in his selection.

He has gone for Ceri Sweeney, not Stephen Jones, at outside half, knowing Sweeney can bring the best out of Iestyn Harris, who prospered against Canada but was far more subdued against Tonga because Jones gave him so little of the ball.

And Hansen has gone for the long haired Jones boys from Neath, Duncan and Adam, as the Welsh props, both of whom bring something of a cavalier approach to the game, which is not to say they ignore the basics.

If Plan A, which Hansen refused to go into yesterday though it undoubtedly involves committing the strong Italians up front early on, fails Plan B will involve using the bench in the shape of Jones, Gareth Cooper and Gethin Jenkins.

Wales ought to secure enough possession up front, though I would have been happier to see the more combative Chris Wyatt there than Gareth Llewellyn, and if they do they will have more than enough behind to finish the job.

Dwayne Peel, though a surprise choice instead of Gareth Cooper, has been chosen for a specific reason and his partnership with Sweeney will be crucial in bringing the best out of Harris who, based on his performance against Canada, will have far too much skill for the Italians.

Gareth Thomas is one of the great triers in rugby and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he equals Ieuan Evans' Welsh record of 32 tries as well as extending his sequence of tries against Italy to eight.

Italy do not possess the same menace behind the scrum which means they will almost certainly seek to dominate through their strong front row and the drive of Andre de Rossi, a real powerhouse, and new young star Sergio Parisse in the back row.

But much depends for them on whether Troncon is fit to capitalise on the work of his pack and also on the Welsh defence in not allowing the Italians to build their momentum.

Wales captain Colin Charvis has joined the hairy brigade, though not in the manner of the Jones boys at prop, but with a braided cut reminiscent of Lennox Lewis.

Maybe the hair loss will be a winner for Wales as it's about time he produced some inspiration.

That is exactly what Wales need. They must play like men inspired. They are in Australia for the World Cup, a once in a lifetime opportunity for some, and they can't waste it.

Italy may have improved and be an emerging force in the game. They even beat Wales in that infamous Rome game earlier this year, their only success in nine attempts, which will instil confidence in the camp.

But that ought to drive Wales on to revenge. Wales as a rugby nation can't afford any more humiliations on the fields of the world. Enough is enough. This group of players have got to take the bull by the horns and crack the Italian challenge.

A place in the quarter-finals of the World Cup is beckoning and it's an opportunity Wales must take. Defeat would undoubtedly mean heads rolling and Hansen for one would surely not survive and neither would, or should, Charvis and probably half the rest of the squad.

The stakes are high, but so they are they for other leading countries. Wales can't let an expectant nation down this time. I'm taking Wales to make it, but only because of Italy's problems and not with any great confidence, but there probably won't be much in it.