A WARNING from recent Newport County AFC history: two years ago a home defeat to Crawley in April was the start of a slippery slope for James Rowberry.

The Exiles hosted the Reds after beating Swindon 1-0 thanks to a last-gasp Dion Conroy own goal following a bit of Finn Azaz magic.

County had been automatic promotion contenders on March 18, 2022 – they could have gone second in the table but lost 3-2 to Hartlepool in Newport.

That disappointment was followed by a goalless draw at Bradford and 1-0 home defeat to an Exeter side that would finish second.

The win in Swindon had seemed to reignite their play-off challenge but instead the Exiles fell apart.

They lost 2-1 to Crawley, 1-0 at Sutton, 2-1 at home to Colchester and then, after another Azaz cracker to stun a Port Vale who would go up through the play-offs 2-1 in the Potteries, finished with a meek 2-0 defeat to Rochdale.

History has been rewritten a little.

South Wales Argus: DELIGHT: James Rowberry celebrates County's win against Tranmere with the fansDELIGHT: James Rowberry celebrates County's win against Tranmere with the fans (Image: Huw Evans Agency)

The start of the Rowberry era was fantastic and the manager really had a mood of optimism at his hometown club.

His successor Graham Coughlan is rightly praised for being in tune with the Amber Army but so was Rowberry when he had the experienced Wayne Hatswell alongside him and results were strong.

Things started to go wrong at the end of 2021/22 and County failed to pick up at the start of the next season, leading to Rowberry’s exit and Coughlan’s arrival.

The mood had changed and the Exiles, thumped 4-0 by Crawley on Monday, don’t want similar to happen in the coming weeks after what has been a successful season given the well-documented challenges.

It will be the hosts and not the visitors at Grimsby on Saturday afternoon who are fighting for their Football League lives, with supporters checking their phones for scores in Sutton, Colchester and Forest Green.

The Mariners know that they won’t get many better opportunities for three points given the Exiles’ long list of absentees.

Coughlan is short of options and some of those that will be in the XI seem to be flagging whether that be because of a heavy workload throughout the season (Bryn Morris and Will Evans), a first full senior campaign (Seb Palmer-Houlden) or playing plenty of games on the bounce after returning from injury due to lack of numbers (Kyle Jameson).

County were low on energy and quality in defeat to Barrow, Colchester and Crawley and need to raise themselves for five more games.

It’s Grimsby this weekend and Bradford to finish the season with home fixtures against Accrington, Tranmere and Salford in between.

South Wales Argus: County boss Graham Coughlan after the defeat to CrawleyCounty boss Graham Coughlan after the defeat to Crawley (Image: Huw Evans Agency)

Arguably it’s those games versus opponents from the north west of England that are most important – County were flat against Crawley and need to show the Amber Army much, much more.

Coughlan’s squad have provided some tremendous highs this season and have credit in the bank but need to keep that feelgood factor going into the summer.

They also want their hard graft to translate into a good league placing, with a top-half finish still possible.

County head into this weekend in 13th place, two points shy of last season's tally of 57 that saw them finish 15th.

Data specialist Opta's supercomputer projection says their most likely finish is 14th, rating the chances of that position as 15.9 percentage probability (with a pretty even spread from 11th to 15th).

County won’t want to slip down the table by being sluggish at the end of a season when they have shown plenty of snap.

Saturday League Two fixtures: Accrington v Crewe, AFC Wimbledon v Salford, Barrow v Swindon, Bradford v Gillingham, Colchester v Wrexham, Forest Green v MK Dons, Grimsby v Newport County, Mansfield v Crawley, Morecambe v Doncaster, Notts County v Harrogate, Sutton v Stockport, Tranmere v Walsall.